Making the Big Time as a creator or arts practitioner
Topic Key Insights Implications / Caveats “Hot streaks” & bursts of impact In one large-scale study of artists, directors, and scientists, most individuals (91% of artists in the sample) experienced at least one period of unusually high-impact work — a “hot streak” — even if their output volume didn’t change. ( arXiv ) Success is often nonlinear. This suggests the fruits of your effort may cluster — you might go for long stretches of modest visibility, punctuated by moments of breakthrough. The trick is to be producing steadily when those moments hit. Luck vs “quality” In “Success in creative careers depends little on product quality,” the authors argue that popularity (e.g. of books, movies) correlates very weakly with independent quality metrics. The implication: there is a significant “random” or context-driven component. ( arXiv ) This doesn’t mean quality doesn’t matter — it does . But it warns against seeing a lack of traction as a moral failure of qua...
